Thursday, August 06, 2015

Musings

Greetings Friends!
Our family has been here in the Philippines a little over a year and a half now. When we first landed David started halfway through Kindergarten and is now starting the second grade! Lynn has flourished and is just starting pre-Kindergarten and is having a blast. She loves going to school with her big brother and making friends of her own.

We moved from a cool climate to a hot and humid one. We moved from a place where cockroaches were only on tv to a place where they are everywhere. We moved from a world where the poor were much more invisible to a place where they are so numerous that to open you eyes is to see need. Life here is odd in an unexpected way as well. Many times I feel as if I have fallen into a 50's tv program. Sure people have smart phones and you can buy new technology, but finding a website for a company is difficult. You want to find the best price for something, or even find out if it is carried? You go to each place and scout it out yourself- maybe a friend will post a good deal on facebook. Glass bottles are the norm. You must bring a shopping bag with you- it is highly unlikely that you will be given a choice between paper and plastic. Sometimes I can't even put a finger on why it has a 50's vibe... but it is there. 
The city here is so big and expansive that it is difficult to see the sky and the horizon is only seen when you get a little out of the city. But once you do step out of the city it is beautiful. The fields are green and the sun is luminous. Farms are run with carabao instead of tractors. The Ocean is alive with color and coral and warmth I had never before experienced. 


We have tasted new foods and seen new places and me new friends and have found that wherever and whenever we move from this place there are things we will miss eating, places we miss going and people that we will miss and much as we now miss our friends in the States. 
In saying goodbye to Washington, to family and to friends in order that we might come here, we have entered into a lifetime of farewells. And as I watch new friends move to the next place that God has in store for them I realize that many of our goodbye's will also be "see you in heaven", because we cannot know that we will find one another in the great big and beautiful world of ours. If we find ourselves back in Washington among our family and friends. We will miss the mangoes, the friends and the waves that are only found here. I wonder if ever again I will find a place that is truly home. A home where my heart is content to be or if maybe a part of me will always be pulled in many directions. I know only that I trust God. I trust Him to guide our steps and to lead our family together to wherever His best waits for us.

Tuesday, February 03, 2015

The Seahawks should have run the ball . . . right? What do the numbers say?

As a typical fan I am coping with my team’s last second loss through math and statistics. (Wait, that’s not part of the normal grieving cycle?)
There has been much written about how bad the Seahawks decision was to pass on 2nd and goal from the 1 yard line with less than 30 seconds on the clock, down by 4 in the Super Bowl. They have the best back on the field (if not in football) and they have always been a run first team. Clearly this was the wrong call . . . Right?
Let’s take a step back. Here are some basic points which are sometimes over looked:
  • With the time left on the clock, and only one timeout, the Seahawks would likely have to throw the ball once to have time to use all 4 downs
  • Defending a play is much more effective if you know (or strongly guess) what is coming (pass or run).
  • Throwing the ball on second down was the only way to also play 4th down if needed, and keep the defense playing both run & pass for the remaining plays.
Based on my own experience I estimated the following likelihood of scoring a touchdown on one play. These are arbitrary because to my knowledge there is no official stat for “Defense expecting run” or “Defense expecting pass”. There is certainly room to challenge the numbers, but I will say I ran the analysis below with my first estimate, and made no changes to manipulate the result.

Defense expectation

Run
Either
Pass
Offense Runs
40%
50%
60%
Offense Passes
25%
15%
10%

With these numbers I calculated the following results. (Note in this analysis the percentages are inverse – A larger percentage is a larger chance the defense stops the play. This makes calculations easier).

Probabilities of not scoring a touch down
Total % of Defense stop
Chances of Seahawks win
Seahawks sequence
2nd down
3rd down
4th down


Run, Run,  out of time
50%
50%
100%
25.00%
75.0%
Pass, Run, Run
85%
50%
50%
21.25%
78.8%
Run, Pass, run
50%
85%
60%
25.50%
74.5%
Run, pass, Pass
50%
85%
75%
31.88%
68.1%
pass, pass, pass
85%
85%
75%
54.19%
45.8%

So, counter-intuitively the Seahawks best chance of winning is by calling a less effective play on second down. You can tweak the numbers to get a different result, but at least the call was not such a monumentally bad decision as it is being portrayed.

Sunday, October 19, 2014

A Blog No One Will Read

Why would someone want to read more about Ebola? The topic is uncomfortable and too frequently discussed already. Besides it is best to stay far away from Ebola. Even reading about it is too close. At least that is my reaction. I’m glad it is far away, and I hope it stays far away until it is solved.

Fear makes me wish I could seal off the areas contaminated. No travel, no planes, no escape for viruses . . . or people. And preferably no media so I don’t have to think about it.

While this side of me is dark and scared, it is not racist or elitist. The truth is, this part of me has the exact same reaction to anyone I don’t personally know. It could be my neighbor with Ebola and I’d still want to hermetically seal their property and avoid all contact. This might not be very neighborly but at least I’d be safe.

Neighborly . . . What should a neighbor do? That’s a question Jesus asked. Or, more accurately that is the question he answered. He was asked, “who is my neighbor?” He answered by describing what a neighbor does, which included attending to a victims wounds.

But surely Ebola is different. Jesus would treat highly contagious diseases differently, right? Actually he sets an annoyingly bold example of love. By touching lepers and hanging out with those rejected by society. He then tells us on multiple occasions to love one another as he has loved us. This is the example of love which led 3rd century Christians in Carthage during the Plague of Cyprian to stay and serve the sick while others fled. Many died as a result of their love.

I am not arguing against medical quarantines. Sometimes they are necessary. But we are to be motivated by love, and not fear. Love is kind. Love is not self-seeking. Love is self-sacrificing, even at great cost. (John 15:13, Romans 5:8)

The real world is complicated, and solutions are not easy. I read this week that there is concern of famine in the region related to Ebola. See, those infected can’t work farms, and fear has shut down trade. Healthy vendors won’t go to areas where there is Ebola to buy or sell.

I have to think that famine would worsen not only the horrific 70% mortality rate among those contracting Ebola, but also would make the outbreak even more difficult to contain as the virus quickly moves through a population weakened by malnourishment. Also, hunger may well cause people to move away looking for food, increasing the geographic area where Ebola is uncontained.

We are caught in a finger puzzle. Torn between moving toward Ebola victims in love, and taking measures necessary to prevent future victims. I’m left with the uncomfortable conclusion that to solve the pandemic we must push into the problem; providing supplies, food, training, and people with the training to help.

Suffering is too easily justified and ignored. But love is bold. I choose to live love and not fear. It’s not a time for flight - it’s time for a fight.





We have chosen to give to organizations who are taking the fight to Ebola in West Africa. I encourage you to do the same.

Want to help with a donation? Here are some links to organizations that are on the ground helping patients and fighting to stop the spread of Ebola:

UNICEF is airlifting essential supplies, distributing vital health information and caring for children and families. They currently have a matching program running:
https://www.unicefusa.org/donate/help-stop-ebola-west-africa-your-donation-matched/18771

Samaritan's Purse and World Vision are working to provide much needed medical supplies:
http://www.samaritanspurse.org/article/fighting-ebola-in-west-africa/
http://donate.worldvision.org/ways-to-give/by-category/urgent-needs/ebola-outbreak-in-west-africa

Doctor's Without Borders are running multiple medical centers:
http://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/

The UN is playing a significant role in helping the countries of West Africa respond to the Ebola crisis, by mobilizing the global community and by providing technical assistance, funding, supplies, and personnel. Following the lead of governments of Ebola-affected countries, the UN is partnering in its response with other governments, technical agencies, donors, and NGOs:
https://secure.globalproblems-globalsolutions.org/site/Donation2?8780.donation=form1&df_id=8780

Tuesday, September 02, 2014

Father Fred

Saint Martin's Basilica is beautiful. After Taal volcano erupted and drove the town back it was built to replace the older church. Started in the mid 1700's and not finished until 1865 roughly 100 years later it is considered young, after all it is 19th century by its completion date. All roads in Taal town seem to lead back towards the church, every time I got turned around I would find myself sighting it down the street. The original bells have since cracked and been replaced, but you can see the originals around the grounds and the newer bells ring loud and clear calling worshiper's to Sunday Mass.
With the Five o'clock church bells and morning light beckoning, we headed towards the basilica to take photos and investigate a rumour that the bell tower could be climbed. Upon our arrival at the visitor center we discovered that the bell tower climb was an option after morning mass was complete. We decided to find coffee and wander the market until 9 am rolled around. Our first stop was coffee and a chat with a delightful woman selling peanuts. Thanks to Tracey's (our plucky Canadian photographer) command of the Tagalog language we learned that she had been widowed some 20 years before and supported herself selling the peanuts, she had no other family. She is now eighty years old and is very sweet. We asked how many of her nuts she sold each day and she informed us that she would sell all that she had brought with her, her regular customers know where to find her.
As a tea drinker, I have had very little coffee in my thirty-two years, but Tracey forgot that and ordered me a coffee along with everyone else. I was concerned that if I didn't drink the coffee I might unintentionally insult the vendor, so I braced myself and took a sip- bitter as I expected (but sweetened to a point where I found it bearable) luckily it was a small cup and I managed to consume it all.
After we finished our coffee we bid the women goodbye and headed towards the market. It was fun, so many colors and things to see. We saw Beth's peanut brittle and I found some coffee that is grown and well known in the Taal area, Jonathan was pleased when I brought it home. There were fruit and vegetable stalls, meat stalls, fish stalls, clothing stalls, convenience stalls and drink stalls.
I opted for whole bean coffee, since it stays fresher and we have a grinder, but you could choose how fine of a grind you wanted to have. Once nine o'clock rolled around we meandered back towards the Basilica to see the bell tower. Once we had our tickets in hand we were shown the way to access the spiraling staircase of the tower. We carefully climbed the winding stone steps to find ourselves in the bell room. The new bells are fitted with a modern device to make easy ringing from below, but the stone surrounding them is old and beautiful. There was another set of steps heading outside the tower to take in the view. Wow. Every expectation had been exceeded and the best was yet to come.
Once we had our fill of the view above Taal town we headed back down to earth and decided to look at the antique area behind the 2nd story of the sanctuary. We wandered through and found ourselves at an open area with a table and kitchen. Bold, Tracey stepped forward and asked if it was a restaurant of staff eating area and to our surprise we discovered that we were talking to the head Father, and that this was the priest's living and eating area. Father Fred introduced himself and invited us to join him for coffee! We couldn't possibly turn him down. We sat at the table and were offered cups of coffee and a small cake of sticky rice wrapped in banana leaves, once unwrapped it was eaten sprinkled with toasted coconut and was delicious. Of course, it would have been inconceivable to refuse a cup of coffee given to me by such a hospitable priest. By the end of the morning I had drunk more coffee that day than I had in my entire life previously.
The Father regaled us with stories and introduced us to the other two priests who worked with him as they came into the dining area. It was like a dream. He told us fishing stories and I told him how my mother-in-law always made chicken when my father-in-law went fishing, just in case. He laughed and decided to show us his koi pond, telling us how they had been so small and were now so big. After we finished our breakfast we followed him to the pond where he fed them for our amusement. The entire morning was unbelievable, I still can't quite believe it was real. Father Fred was so nice and so easy to converse with.
After parting with the Father we headed out of town... our next stop was Tagaytay. En route we ran into a castle that was rather out of place amongst the palm trees, I have since discovered that it was built to be part of an amusement park called Fantasy World that might have been akin to Disneyland. Unfortunately due to financial set backs it is unrealized and while you can tour the castle there is not yet anything else to do there. We stopped briefly in Tagaytay for lunch overlooking Taal lake and watched a storm roll in. A quick cup at Starbucks ended our excursion as the rains came in a torrent making it seem like a good idea to forgo any more photo stops. All in all, it was a splendid and nearly magical adventure.

Monday, September 01, 2014

Photowander weekend- in which a lot happens in just 30 hours

Greetings! It is raining here, I knew it was going to pour once I heard the thunder roll in. The kids are home from school due to a cold and I am editing photos due to the fact that I am me. A Canadian Photographer who lives here in Manila organized a photo-wander weekend to Taal town. I signed up and left the kids with Jonathan to fend for themselves for 30 hours.


The weekend was spectacular and I came away with so much more than photos. The memories of my experiences just beg to be shared. Today I will start off with the tale of Taal peanut brittle. I wasn't yet aware of its local presence, and so the entire adventure was unexpected. Tracey, the awesome Canadian is nearly if not fluent in Tagalog and has an the ability to make friends and converse easily with someone she has just introduced herself to.
Once we had checked into and stowed our belongings at Casa Punzalan (our hotel for the night is an old house that belonged to a prominent family and the style of house is the traditional way of building- complete with windows made from capiz shells) we went in search of someone who knows the area- a tricyle driver. We wanted to find some peanut brittle and see how it was made. Of course he knew exactly where we needed to go. He drove us to a street where the cries of "sweet peanut" rang clear and we found a group of brittle-bakers willing to show us their operation.
While looking nothing like an American Candy factory- it was picturesque and the employees very friendly. We could see the entirely of how it was made without moving from one spot. The shelled nuts waited in large baskets ready for the heat, and huge pans of peanuts, raw sugar, and water were bubbling over fire pits. Tables spread with rings were ready for the hot candy to be molded and once cooled it would be ready to be wrapped by a woman with very fast hands. The light was lovely, the conditions unique and the sweet peanut makers friendly. We were invited to try smoothing out the candy to fill the rings- and we were thrilled to accept.
They gave us a piece of brittle that had just cooled- it takes only minutes- and it was delicious. Bamboo poles with attached paddles for stirring, coconut shells for ladles and natural fiber rings made the molds. the long boards were washed in water before pouring to keep the brittle from sticking. It was hot and so incredible. A Myna bird kept whistling at us and we bought enough to take home to share with our families and later at the market became excited when we saw 'Beth's' brittle next to other family operations.
What other marvelous stories could I possibly have that could be equal to making peanut brittle in Taal? Maybe none, but then, I did have breakfast with Father Fred after morning mass.